The Hidden Power of First Pitch Strikes

By Pierce Jones – 

Every pitcher hears it growing up: “Get ahead, stay ahead.” 

But when you look at the numbers, it’s more than just a cliché. The first pitch of an at-bat doesn’t just set the tone—it shapes the entire outcome.

Across both MLB and Division I baseball, the data is almost identical: when a pitcher lands strike one, more than 92% of those at-bats end in an out or a strikeout. That means hitters are immediately fighting an uphill battle once they fall behind 0–1.

And it doesn’t stop there. 

In the big leagues, nearly 7 out of 10 first-pitch strikes eventually lead to a strikeout. On the flip side, when pitchers open with ball one, the chance of that plate appearance ending in a walk jumps to 70% in MLB—and over 74% at the college level. The first pitch tilts the odds dramatically in one direction or the other.

The advantage shows up in the stat line, too. After a first-pitch strike, hitters put up just .239 /.283 /.372. That’s essentially turning the entire lineup into a bottom-of-the-order bat. And if you want to talk about run prevention, the numbers are even clearer: teams score less than half as many runs when pitchers begin with a strike compared to starting with a ball.

Here’s another piece that often gets overlooked… momentum. Once a pitcher lands strike one, they reach two strikes within the first three pitches 80% of the time. Without it? That drops to just 30%. Getting ahead early doesn’t just make the at-bat easier—it snowballs into more put-away opportunities.

Bottom line: the first pitch is one of the most important weapons a pitcher has. It’s not about painting corners or overpowering hitters every time. It’s about stacking the odds in your favor.  Consistently landing strike one forces hitters into defensive swings, opens up your arsenal, and keeps runs off the board.

For pitchers trying to build a career, mastering the first pitch might be the most underrated skill you can develop.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Important TBR Updates

• TBR’s Fall and Winter Classes are open! Classes are held Monday & Wednesday and will run from September through January.  Spots are limited. CLICK HERE to download the registration form or call to reserve your spot. “Early Bird” savings ends at midnight August 31st.  If you have any questions email info@texasbaseballranch.comor call (936) 588-6762.

• Attention Youth Pitchers & Parents – Registration is open for our youth pitching camp! This once a year event, for players ages 8-12, will be October 4th & 5th.  Registration is open! CLICK HERE for more information and to register.

• Our Fall/Winter Elite Pitchers Bootcamp dates have been released!  These are great opportunities to take advantage of our world renowned training. Dates include:
  Aug. 30-Sept 1 (Sat-Mon) – Space Limited
  Oct. 11-13 (Sat-Mon) Columbus Day Weekend
  Nov. 22-24 (Sat-Mon)
  Dec. 28-30 (Sun-Wed)
  Jan. 17-19 (Sat-Mon) Martin Luther King Day Weekend
  Feb. 14-16 (Sat-Mon) President’s Day Weekend
  To register or learn more CLICK HERE

Tagged as: Baseball, baseball pitching, baseball training, First Pitch Strikes, Pierce Jones, Texas Baseball Ranch, The Ranch